Random Musings: November 2004 Archives

How the heck did I not know about this creepy site?!

Here's a question: are there more people alive than dead? Well, the population is certainly higher now than it's ever been, and it's increasing by the birth rate minus the death rate. The number of dead people is increasing by the death rate. So, if (birth - death) > (death) on average throughout all history then there are more living people than dead people. It seems unlikely that the birth rate has been, on average, twice the death rate, and the standard demographic transition model reflects that for most of history both the birth and death rates have been very high.

# Stage 1, the situation that has characterized the world throughout most of history, is marked by high death and birth rates. Population levels fluctuate somewhat but there is no steady growth.

# In Stage 2, which began in the West around 1800, birth rates remain steady but mortality rates begin to decline because of improvements that reduce the toll of infectious diseases--the big killer in countries with high death rates. Population begins to grow.

# In Stage 3, a continuing decrease in death rates is accompanied by a decline in birth rates. Falling childhood mortality means that the number of births
needed to reach a desired family size drops. In response, fertility rates decline, but the population continues to grow because the number of births in a society is based not only on the number of children each woman bears but also on the number of women of childbearing age. With a disproportionate share of people in the childbearing years, population grows even after fertility rates decline.

# In Stage 4, the situation in the developed world today, there is a rough parity between births and deaths. Correspondingly, the population grows very slowly--if at all. Once a Stage 4 equilibrium of low birth and death rates is reached, immigration becomes the driving force for additional population growth.

Only in the transition stages (2 and 3) is the birth rate much higher than the death rate, so in my estimation there are probably far more dead people than living people.

I guess winter is finally here; the wind is blowing like crazy outside my window and the trees are whipping all around. There was a torrent of rain last night and even some flooding, along with earthquakes, thunder, and lightning. A great night to stay indoors... today would've been a great day to stay indoors as well, but alas.

Starting with the election on the second, November 2004 has been one of the best months in the history of mankind. Why? Because, following in Yasser Arafat's recent sandal-steps, Kofi Annan and Kim Jong Il are on their ways out. There are still 11 days left in the month, and I fully expect the world to just keep getting hotter -- Drudge has already filled me in on the big story coming tomorrow evening, and trust me, it'll be good.

SDB links (via his new anime site, Chizumatic) to a page with a series of lessons on how to speak Yakuza Japanese like a gangster.

If you've ever watched Japanese gangster movies, or had the misfortune of running into a yakuza in person, you know they speak a seemingly incomprehensible form of Japanese. As outcasts and deviants from society, gangsters have their own language with a unique and specialized vocabulary suited to their organizational culture and occupation. Yakuza Japanese runs the gamut from honorifics to epithets, with major regional variations. This webpage is designed as a primer to gangster Japanese, as used in movies, focusing on the Kansai (Osaka, Kobe, Kyoto) and Tokyo varieties.

Glenn Reynolds writes a little about giving blood and even posts a picture. I always give blood when the bus comes by work; sometimes I'll go two or three times a day just for the cookies, but they start to get suspicious after a while. So I recommened buying a wig.

Mr. Reynolds also mentions:

One interesting observation: This is the first time I've donated on campus where there were more men than women giving. Usually it's quite lopsided in the other direction. One of the techs there told me that it's been that way this year; no idea why.

The first potential explanation that came to my mind -- possibly particularly apt on a college campus -- is that the young men who aren't fighting abroad are keen to make some small contribution.

Lileks makes a good point about squeeky wheels:

This doesn’t mean the country is split 50-50, but for some reason newspapers feel compelled to give each side equal weight and imply we’re divided on the issue of Smoking Soldiers. It is helpful to remember that if 9/11 had never happened, and we had never invaded Iraq, these people would be bringing the same level of ire and outrage to the presence of irradiated beef on school menus. They are the squeaky wheels shrieking for grease.

Soy-based non-petroleum recycled post-consumer grease, please.

It's hard to take someone seriously when they have a complaint about everything. Does that mean they're always wrong? Nah, but it makes me suspect they complain because they enjoy it rather than because they simply can't let some injustice go unnoticed.

At the end of an article about a meeting between the major network news chiefs -- Neal Shapiro for NBC, David Westin for ABC, and Andrew Heyward for CBS -- Beth Fouhy quotes Mr. Heyward:

"I think it's important to look at this as in increasingly sumptuous smorgasbord of choices, and Fox started that." Heyward said. "It's very different from the comfortable oligopoly that prevailed at the beginning of broadcast news, where you had networks with enormous market share. I think that's to the public benefit. It puts more pressure on us to be excellent."

I think that's the exact right perspective. Imagine how the music and movie industries might change if they decided to aim for excellence rather than merely run insipid commercials about how sharing their products is wrong (whether it is or not).

Competition produces excellence, every time, in every scenario. It's often important to have limits on competition to restrain our evil impulses (e.g., it's not ok to kill a romantic rival), but for the most part competition should be given free reign and recognized as a critical contributor to the advance of civilization.

Men and women are different.

My brother passes along this C-SPAN list of policy organizations and think tanks. It's long, but not really complete... I can think of a few groups that aren't on there but seem like they should be, like the National Rifle Association.

When I learn someone's pant size I always wonder how much fatter they are than me, or vice versa. So I made up a handy chart. It's only a rough estimate, of course, since people aren't spheres. Correction: Most people.

Waist	Radius	Volume	% of 33"
26	4.14	297	49%
28	4.46	371	61%
30	4.77	456	75%
32	5.09	553	91%
33	5.25	607	100%
34	5.41	664	109%
36	5.73	788	130%
38	6.05	927	153%
40	6.37	1081	178%
42	6.68	1251	206%
44	7.00	1438	237%

This type of information can come in handy if you get in a fight, or if you have to order pizza.

Unfortunately, I have no idea how women's sizes fit into this scheme.

What type of evil genius are you? Keep in mind: we're not talking about super powers here. Just assume that you're ruthless, maniacal, and brilliant -- how would you focus your mental energies to Take Over The World?

A few sample archetypes:

Evil Billionaire -- You're fantastically wealthy and control powerful corporations.

Mad Scientist -- You have prodigious expertise in some realm of science. What would you choose? Genetics? Nuclear physics? Robotics? Geology?

Corrupt Politician -- A rare breed, you have attained high political office but wield public power for your own good rather than the good of your constituents.

Terrorist Mastermind -- You control a secretive global network of terrorist operatives.

Rogue General -- You're a rogue general or mercenary with your own private army.

Master of Deception -- You use psychology and the media to twist the minds of the population.

Or make up your own!

Sorry buddy, I've already taken a mental photo of you that simply cannot be redeveloped. If I ever meet you in person I'll give your way a try -- just so I don't embarrass myself too badly -- but I can't change what's in my heart.

I've been thinking today... what if the Left really is smarter than the Right? Hey, it's possible; maybe individually leftists are smarter than rightists. Let's say that's true. Even still, the evidence of the past six decades demonstrates conclusively that the political ideas of the left are doomed to failure. Huh.

So what if it turns out to be the case that the same types of brains that create entertaining movies and books, craft fashion, and teach in universities also tend to come up with really bad political positions? Maybe people with those kinds of intelligences naturally arrive at solutions to political problems that just don't work. Maybe they are smarter than the rightists in some ways, but just not in this particular way.

Maybe no one type of person is physiologically capable of coming up with the right answers to every question. You know the types of people who are brilliant with math but can't write worth beans, and vice versa. Maybe politics fits into a similar mold, and for whatever reason the brilliant leftists who contribute all sorts of neat stuff to our society just stink at running our institutions.

I have a hypothesis about an area I know little about. Your insight will be appreciated.

I predict that the vast majority of drug-using females will have at some point performed sexual acts in exchange for drugs. Either overtly or implicitly. My understanding of the drug culture is that women very rarely have to pay cash to get their fix.

Chris Bertram at Crooked Timber appears to miss the difference between thoughts and things.

— The thirteen original states that brought us the Constitution voted overwhelmingly for John Kerry.
— The states that didn’t secede and which fought against slavery voted overwhelmingly for John Kerry.
— Black America which brought us in Martin Luther King, one of the greatest moral exemplars of modern times as well as the blues, jazz and soul voted overwhelmingly for John Kerry.
— California, home of the modern motion picture industry, voted for Kerry.

These are the great American achievements: the United States’ lasting contribution to freedom, culture and progress. Sadly, that America, the America of which Americans have the most reason to be proud and foreigners have the most reason to admire, just lost. Again.

Some of his "lasting contributions" are inconsequential, and as for the others he appears to miss the point completely. Sure, the geographical land masses that housed the men who wrote the Constitution now house people who voted for John Kerry -- and so what? What type of document would the residents of the thirteen original states craft now, given the opportunity? The American Constitution, or something like that of European Union?

Don't get me started on Martin Luther King Jr., plagiarist and philanderer. Slavery is pretty much a dead issue, except for the statists who do everything possible to keep black Americans dependent on the government. The movie industry? Please.

A cursory examination of the evidence will reveal something very significant, perhaps even to Mr. Bertram. America is the richest nation in the world, and has been for decades. America contributes more to charity, at home and abroad, than any other nation. America has shed more blood and spent more treasure in the battles against tyranny and oppression than has any other nation. America feeds the world. America heals the world. America protects the world. America facilitates trade and keeps peace on the high seas. America funds more scientific research than any other ten nations. America leads the way in space exploration. America leads the way in economic and social freedom. America is more tolerant and less discriminatory than any other nation in the history of mankind. And why? What else is unique about us? Do we have the tallest skyscrapers or the most erudite and sophisticated intelligentsia? No?

America is the most Christian nation in the world. It is the values and ethics of the Red States that made America great... beliefs that began before one foot was set in the thirteen original states and philosophies that no longer reside there. The vast Red ocean (how grand it is to reclaim that color!) stretching from coast to coast forms the bedrock not only of American greatness, but also of global security and prosperity. The New York elites and Los Angeles studio heads may be ignorant and blind enough to snap at the hands that feed and shelter them, but they would do well to realize that Reagan's "shining city on a hill" isn't really a city at all, but rather a web of "flyover" counties that glues us all together and carries the world on its back.