International Affairs: February 2004 Archives
It sure is terrible that the US is acting unilaterally and alienating all our good buddies in Europe. Too bad there's no way for us to make new friends.
The Republic of Georgia plans to be a close ally of the United States and its giant neighbor Russia will have to live with that fact, Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili said in an interview yesterday.But Georgia is such a small country! Their opinion can't possibly count.
Mr. Saakashvili said his country was sending 500 troops to supplement the 200 soldiers it already has in Tikrit, Iraq, and noted that the United States is training two Georgian military brigades and a counterterrorism force that could be deployed at home or abroad.It counts 700 troops-worth more than France's, anyway.
It looks like some younger Palestinian terrorists are hoping to wrest some control away from Arafat.
The Revolutionary Council of Yasser Arafat's dominant Fatah faction meets today for the first time since the start of the Palestinian intifada in 2000, with some members hoping to overthrow or sideline an "old guard" whom they blame for political and military failures and rampant corruption.Unfortunately, it doesn't look like the people pushing for "democratization" are really that interested in stopping the PLO's use of terror tactics. Still, reigning in the corruption of the PLO might lead to greater prosperity for average Palestinians. Poverty doesn't cause terrorism, but the leaders of the PLO blame the poverty of the Palestinian people on Israel, and thus use it as a political issue to maintain support for terrorist attacks.The attack on longtime leaders is being described as a push for democratization, but is also seen as a way to clip Mr. Arafat's wings without openly attacking a man widely revered as the "Symbol of the Revolution."
Although it's transparently obvious from the outside, it seems most Palestinians don't realize that their poverty is the result of PLO corruption.
Pointing to packets of potato chips, cornflakes, soaps and chocolates made in Israel, Russia and Italy, a Bethlehem shopkeeper last night complained that the products cost up to 50 percent more in the West Bank than in Israel.The real problem facing the Palestinians, however, isn't poverty, but their refusal to acknowledge that they've already lost their war with the "Zionist entity". According to polls, most Palestinians support the use of terrorist attacks on Israel. Until that changes, their lot isn't going to improve, no matter which group of terrorists is running the PLO.The Fatah-controlled Palestinian Authority licenses only one importer per product, he said, and then receives a monthly kickback equaling 3 percent of the importer's purchase price, which goes directly into the bank accounts of senior officials.
The importer, meanwhile, is able to grossly overcharge for the products because of the lack of competition, said the shopkeeper, who spoke on the condition of anonymity.
The big story is that US forces may have Osama Bin Laden cornered, but the sub-plot seems just as newsworthy to me.
A Defense Department official said there are two reasons for repositioning parts of Task Force 121: First, most high-value human targets in Iraq, including Saddam Hussein, have been caught or killed. Second, intelligence reports are increasing on the whereabouts of bin Laden, the terror leader behind the September 11 attacks.The commandos' job in Iraqi is basically done. Isn't that worthy of attention?"Iraq has become more of a policing problem than a hunt for high-value Iraqis," the defense official said. "Afghanistan is the place where 121 can do more."
Prof. Reynolds mentions the Iraqi oil-trust idea again, so I'll reiterate my previous thoughts as well.
Paying Iraqi citizens a yearly "dividend" from the country's oil wealth (a la Alaska) would have an enormous and unpredictable effect on the Iraqi economy. The Alaska oil dividend is small compared to the per capita income of the state, but proposals for a similar Iraqi program suggests payments of around $1000 per year -- several times the median Iraqi income. Such a program would create immediate inflation that would offset the value of the payments... but possibly allow Iraqis to import a great deal from their neighbors, maybe.
But that's the point: I don't think anyone knows what effects such a program would have. It seems wiser to simply privatize the Iraqi oil industry and allow the assets to be traded within a free market. Why replace a socialist-facist dictatorship with a welfare state?
Here's a Washington Times article with quotes from Ahmed Chalabi, leader of the exile group the Iraqi National Congress, admitting that he exaggerated Saddam's weapons programs.
"We are heroes in error," he said in Baghdad on Wednesday. "As far as we're concerned, we've been entirely successful.Interesting. There were certainly plenty of reasons to topple Saddam Hussein other than WMD, but this deception underscores the need for America to redevelop our own effective -- and loyal -- intelligence sources. Otherwise we'll be forced to rely on others with motives of their own."Our objective has been achieved. That tyrant Saddam is gone, and the Americans are in Baghdad. What was said before is not important."
Mr. Chalabi added: "The Bush administration is looking for a scapegoat. We're ready to fall on our swords if [President Bush] wants."
It looks like Iran has it's own version of "campaign finance reform", except instead of shutting up only non-media speakers before an election like we do in America, they shut down pretty much everyone. Seems a little more fair to me, but do we really need a law that tells people when they can and can't discuss politics?
Via Dave at Israellycool here's a couple more fence stories.
First, Palestinian workers and companies are involved in building Israel's security fence.
Second, it looks like Saudia Arabia is stealing my idea and building a fence of its own to keep Yemenis out.
It's amazing to me that so many Arab nations can condemn America for "hating" them; they do a pretty good job of hating each other already.
Let's please do whatever possible to make it easier for these people to come into America.
GUADALAJARA, Mexico — The boos nearly drowned out "The Star-Spangled Banner," and a few dozen fans chanted "Usama! Usama!" as the United States was eliminated by Mexico in Olympic men's soccer qualifying.
A loud anti-American crowd yelled the first name of Usama bin Laden (search), the leader of the Al Qaeda (search) terrorists who carried out the Sept. 11 attacks, as Mexico beat the United States 4-0 Tuesday night in the under-23 tournament, claiming a berth in the Athens Olympics (search).As U.S. players left the stadium for their bus, several fans -- some clutching beers -- chanted "Usama! Usama!"
SDB has written a long piece about the effectiveness of Israel's wall around the West Bank, and it makes me think we could use one of those here in America.
According to The Electronic Intifada (which I assume will give pessimistic estimates), Israel's wall will be about 400 miles long and cost in the neighborhood of $2 billion -- a cost of $5 million per mile. Our border with Mexico is a bit under 2,000 miles long, so an American-Mexican Good Neighbor Wall shouldn't cost more than $10 billion. Not an inconsiderable expense, but just think of all the manufacturing jobs it would create.
For those who'd claim such a wall would be "racist" or "isolationist" or some other such nonsense, just imagine how many more legal immigrants we could let in if we're ever able to stem the flood of illegals. While you're using your imagination, think of all the lives we'd save.
Update:
As a further note, such a wall would be good incredibly good for Mexico as well -- until American financial life support is cut off, Mexico's corrupt kleptocracy will never be reformed and the country will be doomed to stagnation. It's time to shake up the status quo.
Or, more likely, Saddam received bad intelligence. Bill Hobbs links to an article by David Warren and gives some analysis of his own. The gist of Mr. Warren's article is that Saddam Hussein didn't know that he didn't have WMD, and that his own scientists were lying to him and stealing the money he gave them to build weapons. That seems perfectly reasonable to me, and many suspected that might be the case.
Bill Hobbs then hypothesizes:
Imagine if the truth had become known in time to save Saddam. For one, the regime's rape rooms and torture prisons would still be in use and its mass graves would still be filling with more bodies of men, women and children. That much we know. The war saved hundreds of thousands of Iraqis' lives.Personally, I don't think the possibility of Saddam possessing WMD was the most significant factor in the US's decision to go to war. It may have been the most public part of the debate, but Saddam's connection to and support for terrorism was more important. Not to even mention his continuing refusal to abide by Gulf War cease-fire arrangements. The WMD theory was a convenient focal point for the debate, but I'm pretty confident that we would have toppled his regime regardless.
Mr. Hobbs then poses the following scenario:
Now, imagine what might have happened had we not gone to war, and still believed Saddam had WMD and Saddam, deluded into believing he had WMD, threatened to use them against Israel. I don't mean an idle threat - I mean an ultimatum, with a date certain. What if Saddam had said, "If the Jews do not leave the occupied terroritories by Sept. 1, I'll nuke Tel Aviv." I suspect on August 31, Israel would destroy Baghdad.Saddam could have certainly used his WMD to threaten his neighbors (were he to ever admit having them), but no one threatens to use nukes like that. Making the threat to use nuclear weapons is equivalent to actually using them, and invites an immediate nuclear response. If anyone made such a threat against the United States, they'd be vaporized within hours (or less, if we had missiles targetted at them already, as we do with all other known nuclear powers). The point of such a policy is to prevent the type of nuclear blackmail Mr. Hobbs describes, and I imagine Israel would respond similarly.
