A downward revision from the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office on the effect of Obamacare on employment. If you think think this number is unlikely to be revised further downward in future years, you haven't been paying attention to all the "unexpected" bad news recently.
The agency previously estimated that the economy would have 800,000 fewer jobs in 2021 as a result of the law. In that analysis, the CBO looked primarily at how employers would respond to a new penalty for failing to offer insurance to employees who work more than 30 hours a week. That response would include cutting people's hours, hiring fewer workers and lowering wages for new jobs.On Tuesday, the agency released a more detailed estimate that includes how ordinary Americans would react to those changes by employers. Some would choose to keep Medicaid rather than take a job at reduced wages. Others, who typically do not work full-time, would delay returning to work in order to keep subsidies for private insurance that are provided under the law.
As a result, by 2021, the number of full-time positions would be reduced by 2.3 million, the report said.
The CBO also predicts that compensation will also suffer:
The CBO is now estimating the law will reduce labor force compensation by 1 percent from 2017-2024 -- twice the reduction it previously had projected.
