Meir Javedanfar theorizes that Iran took the 15 British soldiers hostage as a ploy to "Carterize" Tony Blair and knock the UK out of the Global War on Terror.
By capturing the servicemen, Tehran is hoping that the British people, particularly the majority who are already against the war in Iraq will openly blame Blair for the crisis, by saying that it is his fault for endangering the lives of troops by sending them into a conflict zone.Such internal dissatisfaction, Tehran hopes, would subsequently deal a deadly blow to any plans Blair or his successor may have to support an attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities.
The solution to dealing with thugs is to turn to Carter's successor, Ronald Reagan. Every time we give an inch they push for another, and pretty soon we're living under sharia law and baseball is replaced as the national pass-time by stampeding off bridges.
I pray nightly for the safe return of those British soldiers, but I cringe at the policies that allowed their capture. I hope that American troops would have been free to resist capture, but I'm not confident of it thanks to our weak-kneed politicians.
Walid Phares thinks he knows what Iran will do next.
2) The regime "needs" an external clash to crush the domestic challenge.As in many comparable cases worldwide, when an authoritarian regime is faced with severe internal opposition it attempts to deflect the crisis onto the outside world. Hence, Teheran's all out campaign against the US and its allies in Iraq, Lebanon and the region is in fact a repositioning of Iran's shield against the expected rising opposition inside the country. Hence the Khomeinist Mullahs plan seem to be projected as follow:
a. Engage in the diplomatic realm, to project a realist approach worldwide, but refrain from offering real results
b. Continue, along with the Syrian regime, in supporting the "Jihadi" Terror operations (including sectarian ones) inside Iraq
c. Widen the propaganda campaign against the US and its allies via a number of PR companies within the West, to portray Iran as "a victim" of an "upcoming war provoked by the US."
d. Engage in skirmishes in the Gulf (and possibly in other spots) with US and British elements claiming these action as "defensive," while planned thoroughly ahead of time.
3) The regime plan is to drag its opponents into a trap
Teheran's master planners intend to drag the "Coalition" into steps in engagement, at the timing of and in the field of control of Iran's apparatus. Multiple options and scenarios are projected.
a. British military counter measure takes place, supported by the US. Iran's regime believe that only "limited" action by the allies is possible, according to their analysis of the domestic constraints inside the two powerful democracies.
b. Tehran moves to a second wave of activities, at its own pace, hoping to draw a higher level of classical counter strikes by US and UK forces. The dosing by Iran's leadership is expected to stretch the game in time, until the departure of Blair and of the Bush Administration by its political opponents inside the country's institutions and public debate.
So basically they plan to keep jabbing us until President Bush and Prime Minister Blair are out of office, at which point the mullahs expect our next leaders to capitulate and sue for peace. Seems like they're familiar with the Democrats.
