I've been following Tradesports odds on Republicans keeping the House and the Senate, and the numbers don't look quite as bleak for the GOP as Albert R. Hunt suggests. Says Mr. Hunt,

Barring an unexpected and big event, Democrats will win control of the U.S. House of Representatives in November and conceivably the Senate, too. Whether it's a tsunami or just a powerful wave, the political dynamics are moving in that direction, or more accurately, against the Republicans and President George W. Bush.

Democratic insiders, who months ago thought their chances of winning a majority in the House were no better than even, and that the Senate was a lost cause, have become far more optimistic. Now, they say, winning the House is a lock, and the Senate is within reach. ...

More telling is that the smartest Republican political minds agree. ``The issue matrix and political dynamics are not good for us,'' says Representative Tom Davis, a Virginia Republican. ``Only some big national or international event before the election can change that.''

Presumably the stupid Republican political minds are those who disagree, but in any event, the bettors on Tradesports (whose only incentive is to be right) don't see the House as a "lock" for the Democrats.


The bettors give Republicans only a 46% chance to retain the House, but that's a far cry from certainty for the Democrats. However, unlike the Senate which has remained a steady bet for the GOP, the House numbers have been trending downward for a long time.




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