Recently in International Affairs Category

Walter Russell Mead explains how overthrowing Gaddafi limited our options with Iran.

Meanwhile, many analysts agree that the war in Libya, brilliant and strategic though it appeared to the White House at the time, may be making our options regarding Iran more limited. The west made a deal with Gaddafi: stop your nuclear program and we will treat you with respect. He kept his end of the bargain and we dispatched him to his eternal reward. What assurances can we now give the mullahs that would induce them to believe that they will be safe without nukes?

This makes it less likely that President Obama's approach to Iran, infinitely more important for the future of US foreign policy than anything that has happened or could happen in Libya, will succeed. There is no pledge Obama could give the mullahs that can offer them the same protection that a bomb would give them; the "duty to protect" crowd does not believe it needs to honor any sort of pre-existing pledge to a leader it decides is "bad," while reserving the right to strike anyone, anywhere, anytime, should a moral mood befall us. For Iran, the lesson of Libya is that the West will tell you anything to get you to give up the quest for nuclear weapons, but none of the beautiful pledges can be trusted. At the first sign of weakness, they will intervene to overthrow you.

Thank goodness the Bush crowd and those awful neocons are gone.

Of course, as WRM notes, international diplomacy is hard and there often aren't any good options.

Megaupload.com is out of business, but not because their business model failed. The founder, Kim Dotcom, seems to have made hundreds of millions of dollars. His only downfall was basing his business in a country with friendly legal relationships with the US government. So, why doesn't North Korea (or another pariah nation) enter the illegal file sharing market? They'd get a huge inflow of foreign capital for minimal cost and no risk of arrest.

North Korean dictator Kim Jong-il is dead. Pray that the inevitable instability creates an opportunity for North Koreans to claim their God-given freedom and throw off the horrible tyranny that has been strangling them for so many decades.

It would be great for us to stop the violence in Syria, but America needs big vision humanitarianism.

The most moral foreign policy is the one that is grounded in a serious, long-term strategic view of where the world is headed, what the principal dangers are, and how the United States can preserve and develop its own strength and prosperity so as to do what needs to be done on the international scene.

In Syria that means helping grease the skids for Assad, more because it weakens and isolates Iran and undermines Hezbollah than because Butcher Assad is a vicious and bloodthirsty tyrant. A moment could come in which military intervention with the right partners and under the right circumstances would make sense, but it looks as if Assad's growing weakness will spare us from having to make that decision. Preventing a US-Iranian war is a humane and appropriate goal for our foreign policy, and driving the mullahs away from the Mediterranean could help get that done.

In other places a humane and moral foreign policy means doing different things. It means maintaining civil and open relationships with governments in China and Saudi Arabia, for example, despite our instinctive moral distaste for much that those governments do. The moral vigilantes call this hypocrisy, but this kind of behavior is a necessary part of making life better for people all over the world, including Americans.

The best-looking option right now doesn't always produce the best long-term results. This is painful to acknowledge when thousands of innocent people are being slaughtered by vicious murderers.

The Chinese village of Wukan is in open rebellion against the Communist government.

For the first time on record, the Chinese Communist party has lost all control, with the population of 20,000 in this southern fishing village now in open revolt.

The last of Wukan's dozen party officials fled on Monday after thousands of people blocked armed police from retaking the village, standing firm against tear gas and water cannons.

Since then, the police have retreated to a roadblock, some three miles away, in order to prevent food and water from entering, and villagers from leaving. Wukan's fishing fleet, its main source of income, has also been stopped from leaving harbour.

The plan appears to be to lay siege to Wukan and choke a rebellion which began three months ago when an angry mob, incensed at having the village's land sold off, rampaged through the streets and overturned cars.

It sounds like the government has blockaded the village. Cutting off food and water from civilians is an atrocity that the international community should condemn.

Could this rebellion spread, or have the Communists contained it? Now that the news is on the internet, it's hard to see how the government can prevent the spread of the news to the rest of China. Revolt by the rural masses is the most direct and imminent threat to China's economic growth, and I don't expect the government to handle it with a light touch.

(HT: RD.)

OilPrice has an insightful look into the logistics of supplying the American forces in Afghanistan with fuel and the effects of the recent friendly-fire incident on the AfPak border.

On 27 November Interior Minister Rehman Malik, addressing journalists at the Ministry of the Interior's National Crisis Management Cell, after strongly condemning the NATO attack on Pakistani forces, stated that the resupply routes for NATO via Pakistan have been stopped "permanently," adding that the decisions of the Defense Cabinet Committee (DCC) on the NATO forces attack inside Pakistan would be implemented in letter and spirit, stressing that "The decisions of the DCC are final and would be implemented."

The major issue at stake here for ISAF and U.S. forces is fuel, all of which must be brought in from abroad at high cost. In October 2009 Pentagon officials testified before the House Appropriations Defense Subcommittee that the "Fully Burdened Cost of Fuel" (FBCF) translates to about $400 per gallon by the time it arrives at a remote Forward Operating Base (FOB) in Afghanistan. Last year, the FBCF reached $800 in some FOBs following supply route bombings in Pakistan, while others have claimed the FBCF may be as high as $1,000 per gallon in some remote locations. For many remote locations, fuel supplies can only be provided by air - one of the most expensive ways being in helicopter fuel bladders.

We can't operate in Afghanistan without cooperation from Pakistan. Once we're done in Afghanistan we won't need to be so nice to our "friends" in Pakistan. Not that I blame them for being angry at about the 24 Pakistani border guards we killed with an airstrike.

Sometimes an institution does something so stupid that it reveals that the institution itself has become fundamentally useless or even malevolent. In the most egregious cases, I believe we need something like capital punishment for entire organizations. Consider the recent ruling in the EU that bottled water manufacturers cannot claim that water reduces the risk of dehydration.

Brussels bureaucrats have been lambasted for conducting a three year study that has resulted in an E.U. ban on bottled water claims that drinking water prevents dehydration.

A three year study by European bureaucrats in Brussels has resulted in a ban on producers of bottled water from claiming that water prevents dehydration. The ban met with widespread criticism in Britain where the advice of the National Health Service is that drinking water helps to prevent dehydration. However if bottled water carries such claims from next month, the producers could face a two year prison sentence, according to Town Hall.

The European Food Standards Authority is behind this idiotic decisions and should be immediately disbanded and all the employees should be fired. Any institution that can produce such nonsense has no hope for reform. Kill it and start over.

America's economy isn't in great shape, but we'll own the 21st century because we're a lot stronger than anyone else. I'll quote the section about oil and gas, but there are several other major points in the article as well.

Telegraph readers already know about the "shale gas revolution" that has turned America into the world's number one producer of natural gas, ahead of Russia.

Less known is that the technology of hydraulic fracturing - breaking rocks with jets of water - will also bring a quantum leap in shale oil supply, mostly from the Bakken fields in North Dakota, Eagle Ford in Texas, and other reserves across the Mid-West.

"The US was the single largest contributor to global oil supply growth last year, with a net 395,000 barrels per day (b/d)," said Francisco Blanch from Bank of America, comparing the Dakota fields to a new North Sea.

Total US shale output is "set to expand dramatically" as fresh sources come on stream, possibly reaching 5.5m b/d by mid-decade. This is a tenfold rise since 2009.

The US already meets 72pc of its own oil needs, up from around 50pc a decade ago.

"The implications of this shift are very large for geopolitics, energy security, historical military alliances and economic activity. As US reliance on the Middle East continues to drop, Europe is turning more dependent and will likely become more exposed to rent-seeking behaviour from oligopolistic players," said Mr Blanch.

Along this same line, I recommend "The Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21st Century" by George Friedman.

Our foreign enemies have won another battle: Iraq bows to Iranian pressure and refuses to "allow" American military bases.

The US suffered a major diplomatic and military rebuff on Friday when Iraq finally rejected its pleas to maintain bases in the country beyond this year.

Barack Obama announced at a White House press conference that all American troops will leave Iraq by the end of December, a decision forced by the final collapse of lengthy talks between the US and the Iraqi government on the issue.

The Iraqi decision is a boost to Iran, which has close ties with many members of the Iraqi government and which had been battling against the establishment of permanent American bases.

I put "allow" in quotes because the Iraqi government can't really do anything about the tens of thousands of American soldiers on the ground unless we agree to leave. Which we should not.

Obviously this move weakens America in the region and globally, strengths Iran and our other enemies, and makes us look like fools.

2012 can't come soon enough.

(HT: Gateway Pundit.)

The global economic and political order is shaped more by geography than most people realize. Does it bother you that most of America's enemies are funded by American dollars spent to buy oil? Well an American oil boom is the leading edge of a global realignment.

Two years ago, America was importing about two thirds of its oil. Today, according to the Energy Information Administration, it imports less than half. And by 2017, investment bank Goldman Sachs predicts the US could be poised to pass Saudi Arabia and overtake Russia as the world's largest oil producer. ...

Amy Myers Jaffe of Rice University says in the next decade, new oil in the US, Canada and South America could change the center of gravity of the entire global energy supply.

"Some are now saying, in five or 10 years' time, we're a major oil-producing region, where our production is going up," she says.

The US, Jaffe says, could have 2 trillion barrels of oil waiting to be drilled. South America could hold another 2 trillion. And Canada? 2.4 trillion. That's compared to just 1.2 trillion in the Middle East and north Africa.

Glenn Reynolds says that if he ran Russia or Saudi Arabia he'd be funding American environmentalist groups in an attempt to slow down the boom -- and Glenn certainly knows that Saudi Arabia is already campaigning against "ethical oil".

This energy boom may be the most globally significant event right now, thought it will take many years to be fully realized.

The mainstream media continues to ignore Fast and Furious. Recap:

Not only did U.S. officials approve, allow and assist in the sale of more than 2,000 guns to the Sinaloa cartel -- the federal government used taxpayer money to buy semi-automatic weapons, sold them to criminals and then watched as the guns disappeared.

This disclosure, revealed in documents obtained by Fox News, could undermine the Department of Justice's previous defense that Operation Fast and Furious was a "botched" operation where agents simply "lost track" of weapons as they were transferred from one illegal buyer to another. Instead, it heightens the culpability of the federal government as Mexico, according to sources, has opened two criminal investigations into the operation that flooded their country with illegal weapons.

Hundreds of people were murdered with these guns, and the Left has been attempting to argue for more restrictions on gun ownership based on anecdotes about American weapons making their way south.

The American media has been ignoring this atrocity for too long, but I don't think they'll be able to muffle it forever.

The Palestinians are trying to get nine Security Council members to vote in favor of creating a Palestinian state.

The Palestinians hope to enlist nine members behind them, even if "the U.S. is going to veto it and embarrass itself," he told Voice of Palestine Radio from New York.

For any decision to pass in the 15-member Council, nine affirmative votes are needed, as well as no veto by any of the permanent Security Council members. The United States holds a veto and has promised to use it, if necessary. ...

The Palestinians are trying to win over Gabon, Nigeria and Bosnia-Herzegovina. The first, west-central African state seemed to have made up its mind to vote for the Palestinians, but the other two remained hesitant, Malki said.

Portugal, earlier still defined as undecided, by Tuesday seemed inclined to vote with the Palestinians, Israeli officials said.

Gabon, Nigeria, Bosnia-Herzegovina, and Portugal. These countries are all impotent in the Real World but thanks to the absurdity of the United Nations we're now forced to beg them hat-in-hand not to hand us a diplomatic defeat.

Secretary of State Hillary Clinton should have headed off this embarrassment months ago.

(HT: Hot Air.)

Remind me how many people died in Watergate?

The investigation into Gunwalker continues.

After reiterating that every law enforcement agent that has been asked about Operation Fast and Furious has said that there is no way that it could have been a viable law enforcement operation, I asked Chairman Issa if there was any evidence of another reason for the implementation of Operation Fast and Furious and the other alleged gun-walking operations.

"This was dumb, it was useless, and it was lethal," was the soundbite most of us will take away from the call in answer to that question, but his longer answer -- which I regret I do not have a transcript of -- is far more telling. ...

Issa put it rather bluntly: "The administration wanted to show that guns found in Mexico came from the United States."

He elaborated a bit when he noted that while he wouldn't presume to know the precise goals of Operation Fast and Furious, it certainly did seem to tie in with the narrative the Obama administration was trying to push -- that U.S. guns were turning up at Mexican crime scenes. That allowed, the suggestion hanging in the air was that a goal of the Administration was indeed a "Reichstag fire" designed to support a narrative that has been publicly woven by Attorney General Holder, Secretary of State Clinton, Secretary of Homeland Security Napolitano, and President Obama himself on multiple occasions.

I hope that the truth comes out and that all wrongdoers are brought to justice.

Saudia Arabia apparently doesn't like Canada marketing its oil sands as "ethical oil".

Is Saudi Arabia losing its cool over Canada's growing oil sands? It certainly seems that way, based on the Middle East kingdom's bizarre over-reaction to television commercials that promote Canada's "ethical oil," in contrast to oil coming from Saudi Arabia, a regime that oppresses women.

The commercials are sponsored by a tiny grassroots organization based in Toronto, EthicalOil.org, that encourages consumers to favour "ethical" oil from Canada over "conflict" oil that comes from undemocratic regimes, where most of the world's oil reserves are located.

I think that "ethical oil" is a great term, and I'm glad it makes our good buddies in Saudia Arabia uncomfortable.

The always brilliant Mark Steyn on the London riots:

Her Majesty's cowed and craven politically correct constabulary stand around with their riot shields and Robocop gear as young rioters lob concrete through store windows to steal the electronic toys which provide their only non-narcotic or alcoholic amusement. I chanced to be in Piccadilly for the springtime riots when the police failed to stop the mob from smashing the windows of the Ritz and other upscale emporia, so it goes without saying that they wouldn't lift a finger to protect less-prestigious private property from thugs. Some of whom are as young as 9 years old. And girls.

Yet a police force all but entirely useless when it comes to preventing crime or maintaining public order has time to police everything else. When Sam Brown observed en passant to a mounted policeman on Cornmarket Street in Oxford, "Do you know your horse is gay?", he was surrounded within minutes by six officers and a fleet of patrol cars, handcuffed, tossed in the slammer overnight, and fined 80 pounds. Mr. Brown's "homophobic comments," explained a spokesmoron for Thames Valley Police, were "not only offensive to the policeman and his horse, but any members of the general public in the area." The zealous crackdown on Sam Brown's hippohomophobia has not been replicated in the present disturbances. Anyone who has so much as glanced at British policing policy over the past two decades would be hard pressed to argue which party on the streets of London, the thugs or the cops, is more irredeemably stupid.

The social welfare state has infantilized its citizens (or "subjects" in the UK).

Big Government means small citizens: it corrodes the integrity of a people, catastrophically. Within living memory, the city in flames on our TV screens every night governed a fifth of the Earth's surface and a quarter of its population. When you're imperialists on that scale, there are bound to be a few mishaps along the way. But nothing the British Empire did to its subject peoples has been as total and catastrophic as what a post-great Britain did to its own.

A riveting and disturbing conversation with two Syrians who escaped the ongoing massacre. They say that there is no possibility of a peaceful resolution.

One of his torturers was a kid of about 15, who while kicking him screamed, "Assad is your God! How dare you!" He said this to point out the culture among the security forces and the absolute impossibility of "peaceful reform"--the depravity was too institutionalized. Reform of the kind international observers kept calling for, he thought, was now beyond imagination. "For the Alawites, this is existential--they crush these demonstrations or they die."

I said to him that this seemed to me an accurate perception. I could not imagine the Alawites would not be slaughtered to the last man if they lost control now. He basically agreed. "I don't want this and don't think it's right"--he wanted to be very clear about this--but he thought I was realistic in saying it. "There will be massacres. They've killed people's sons, they've raped their wives. After that, all someone lives for is to kill a thousand people."

Pray for Syria, but not for peace. Sometimes fighting is the right answer.

I have absolutely no comment on the Obedient Wives Club.

The Obedient Wives Club (OWC), which has chapters in Malaysia, Indonesia and Singapore and intends to open in London and Paris later this year, says it intends to curb various social problems, including prostitution and gambling, by showing Muslim wives how to "be submissive and keep their spouses happy in the bedroom". This, in turn, would lead to more harmonious marriages and societies, it says. ...

The OWC, which launched in Jordan this year, opened a branch in Malaysia last month and in Indonesia last week. In Malaysia, it caused a furore when its international vice-president, Rohaya Mohamad, declared that, by becoming a "good whore ... to your husband" and serving him "better than a first-class prostitute", women could help "curb social ills like prostitution, domestic violence, human trafficking and abandoned babies" - all of which she attributed to unfulfilled sexual needs.

The Netherlands has made a 180 and decided to reject multiculturalism in an attempt to avoid death by demographics.

The Dutch government says it will abandon the long-standing model of multiculturalism that has encouraged Muslim immigrants to create a parallel society within the Netherlands.

A new integration bill (covering letter and 15-page action plan), which Dutch Interior Minister Piet Hein Donner presented to parliament on June 16, reads: "The government shares the social dissatisfaction over the multicultural society model and plans to shift priority to the values of the Dutch people. In the new integration system, the values of the Dutch society play a central role. With this change, the government steps away from the model of a multicultural society."

The letter continues: "A more obligatory integration is justified because the government also demands that from its own citizens. It is necessary because otherwise the society gradually grows apart and eventually no one feels at home anymore in the Netherlands. The integration will not be tailored to different groups."

The new integration policy will place more demands on immigrants. For example, immigrants will be required to learn the Dutch language, and the government will take a tougher approach to immigrants to ignore Dutch values or disobey Dutch law.

The government will also stop offering special subsidies for Muslim immigrants because, according to Donner, "it is not the government's job to integrate immigrants." The government will introduce new legislation that outlaws forced marriages and will also impose tougher measures against Muslim immigrants who lower their chances of employment by the way they dress. More specifically, the government will impose a ban on face-covering Islamic burqas as of January 1, 2013.

If necessary, the government will introduce extra measures to allow the removal of residence permits from immigrants who fail their integration course.

If you believe that your culture is worth preserving and you have a lot of people who want to move to your country, then you need to limit immigration and/or take measures to ensure that immigrants assimilate into your culture rather than vice versa. The math is pretty simple.

(HT: Thomas Lifson.)

Abortion, the great bastion of women's rights, has led to the slaughter 163 million baby girls. What an incomprehensible tragedy and a terrible stain on humanity.

In nature, 105 boys are born for every 100 girls. This ratio is biologically ironclad. Between 104 and 106 is the normal range, and that's as far as the natural window goes. Any other number is the result of unnatural events.

Yet today in India there are 112 boys born for every 100 girls. In China, the number is 121—though plenty of Chinese towns are over the 150 mark. China's and India's populations are mammoth enough that their outlying sex ratios have skewed the global average to a biologically impossible 107. But the imbalance is not only in Asia. Azerbaijan stands at 115, Georgia at 118 and Armenia at 120.

What is causing the skewed ratio: abortion. If the male number in the sex ratio is above 106, it means that couples are having abortions when they find out the mother is carrying a girl. By Ms. Hvistendahl's counting, there have been so many sex-selective abortions in the past three decades that 163 million girls, who by biological averages should have been born, are missing from the world.

All of humanity should be ashamed and horrified.