Wesley J. Smith makes the cogent point that we seem to be forgetting the purpose of the shutdowns:

The point of the national economic shutdown seems to have shifted in Cuomo's mind. The purpose of mitigation, to use Dr. Fauci's terminology, was to "flatten the curve" -- meaning reduce the number of people seriously ill at any given time and have people's illnesses spread over a longer period -- to prevent medical resources from being overwhelmed as happened in Northern Italy. That goal may have been accomplished, which is why President Trump is encouraging a phased restart of the economy.

But it seems that Cuomo now believes the point of keeping everyone at home is for nobody to get sick. That's impossible, particularly with a virus this communicable and one that is going to be with us for some time even if researchers successfully create a vaccine, which is no sure thing.



Hospitals seem to have plenty of spare capacity across most of America.

Tens of thousands of health care workers across the United States are going without pay today, even as providers in the nation's hot spots struggle to contain the coronavirus pandemic

This "tale of two hospitals" is a function of clumsy, if well-intentioned, federal and state directives to halt all non-emergency procedures, which appeared at first blush to be a reasonable precaution to limit unnecessary exposure and safeguard staff, beds and equipment.

But instead of merely preserving hospital beds and other resources, this heavy-handed injunction has created a burden of its own design: a historic number of empty beds in systems left untouched by the pandemic.

The curve is flat in America, except for New York; asymptomatic COVID-19 infections appear to be more widespread than previously thought.

Based on results of the first round of testing, the research team estimates that approximately 4.1% of the county's adult population has antibody to the virus. Adjusting this estimate for statistical margin of error implies about 2.8% to 5.6% of the county's adult population has antibody to the virus- which translates to approximately 221,000 to 442,000 adults in the county who have had the infection. That estimate is 28 to 55 times higher than the 7,994 confirmed cases of COVID-19 reported to the county by the time of the study in early April. *** The number of COVID-related deaths in the county has now surpassed 600.

This is great news because it equates to a fatality rate in a range between .0014 and .0027. Standard seasonal flu viruses typically have a fatality rate around .001.

Seems like the shutdowns have mostly succeeded, and we can begin loosening the restrictions. We can't "return to normal" yet, but we can probably get by in most of America by isolating the vulnerable population and letting others take appropriate precautions and get back to work.

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