The title is my prediction for the next year.

  • Trump will be impeached. Now that Pelosi has given an inch to her caucus, they'll take a mile. It's virtually impossible to conceive of a sequence of events that doesn't see Trump impeached by the House. Probably along a part-line vote -- there may be some GOP defections, but the Republican base will be deeply hostile to any defectors.
  • Trump will remain in office. It's virtually impossible to conceive of a sequence of events in which Senate Republicans will vote to convict Trump. Another party-line vote, except maybe for a Romney defection.
  • Trump will win re-election. The impeachment will drag on -- McConnell won't be able to force a quick vote because Supreme Court Chief Justice Roberts will preside over the trial. Both sides will call a zillion witnesses, but none of it will matter for electoral purposes. Impeachment will dominate the year, and voters will punish Democrats for it. Democrat voters will be discouraged and demoralized by the foregone conclusion, and Republican voters will be motivated and angry over the debacle. Biden is a dead man walking, and Elizabeth Warren couldn't be Trump even in a normal election year.

We'll see how these predictions play out!

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