Intrade has launched a World Crisis Index with a pretty neat methodology. The index is an average of several ongoing economic contracts, normalized to start at 50.0.
To measure the immediate impact of dozens of presentations and workshops by 2,500 business and 42 political leaders we have constructed the Intrade World Crisis Index.
Our admittedly unsophisticated sentiment index priced at 50.0 at the official opening of the meeting is comprised of eight equally weighted markets that measure the likelihood of recessions, depressions, increased unemployment, lower stock markets, and greater international tensions.
A higher post meeting index means our markets predict a more disastrous 2009 than before. A lower post-meeting index means our markets predict global leaders have reduced the probability that 2009 will be the disaster we previously thought.
The WCI started at 50.0 two days ago, and now stands at 50.2.