Intrade is offering a new kind of contract that allows users to bet on political polling errors.
Intrade has just launched new Polling Error Markets to shed light on the possibility that the final polling averages will significantly misrepresent the final state of the race. ... Intrade's Polling Error Markets will compare the spread between the final Real Clear Politics polling averages for Sen. Obama and Sen. McCain to the final true spread in the popular vote as published by the Federal Election Commission.These new markets will provide unique information on the likelihood that a candidate will significantly over or underperform the final poll averages.
Here's a link to the baseline contract. It just opened, so there aren't any bids yet.
I should get paid by Intrade, but I don't.
Intrade has picked it for Obama in no uncertain terms. Either a lot of individual folks on the left have invested their money to make it look bad for McCain or... things are really bad for McCain.
But I made $400 on Intrade (then Tradesports) betting on Bush in 2004 on election eve :)