I'm both an optimist and a contrarian, so all the gloomy economic forecasts rub me the wrong way. I'm not really qualified to opine on the merits of one smart-guy's view over another's, but Ken Fisher at Forbes sees things the way I do.
My critics call me a perma-bull. They forget I called the last three full-fledged bear markets right here in FORBES--reasonably well and better than most--and mostly alone (June 15, 1987; Nov. 27, 1989; Feb. 19, 2001). I know I may be wrong now. But I see what's happened since Jan. 1 as just a major correction, very comparable to 1998, with a few things flip-flopped, as described in my Feb. 25 column. ...
You can't find a time in the 20th century when, less than five months into a real global bear market, people were talking bear market and recession in any visible numbers. But they always talk disaster during corrections. Check out "Russian Financial Crisis" on Wikipedia. The second sentence says 1998 was a "global recession … which started with the Asian financial crisis in July 1997." Wrong. There wasn't a global recession then. There isn't one now.
An old saw says, "You should be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Clearly folks are fearful now. So you should be greedy. Another saw: "Buy when there is blood on the streets." There's plenty of blood, or at least depression, on Wall Street. So keep buying.
Well, that's what I've been doing. I've got friends in the financial services industry who thing I'm an idiot because all the professionals they know are crapping their pants. Hey, I've been wrong before! But I know one thing: you can't "buy low, sell high" unless you're willing to "buy low".