Ok, not to be too morbid, but let's compare the present Supreme Court justices with the Social Security actuarial table and make a prediction about how many more nominations (by death) the President will get (excepting Miers, whatever happens with her). Let's simplify and give Bush three more years in office and round the justices' ages down to the nearest year.

JusticeAgeChance of living three more years
John Roberts5098.2%
John Paul Stevens8565.1%
Antonin Scalia6991.1%
Anthony Kennedy6991.1%
David Souter6693.1%
Clarence Thomas5796.9%
Ruth Bader Ginsburg7292.5%
Stephen Breyer6792.5

Chance of all justices surviving three more years: 41%. Plus, justices often retire without dying, so it's pretty likely that President Bush will get at least one more nomination.



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