Predictions for 2005-2008; or, What's The Worst That Can Happen?

I worry most about more deficits.

I also worry about any additional encroachment of our civil liberties... ala the Patriot Act.

If there were a Democrat in the White House or a Democratic majority in the Congress, we'd have divided government. Divided government tends to lead to a reduction in federal spending... because of gridlock.

I can only hope that some of the more fiscally conservative in Congress get their day to say "NO" to some of the President's proposals.. and have it be mean something.

I agree Mark, but not only that.... he's angered many in the middle east. Ie people who may have not liked America before, but now see America as a true threat and will take up arms with the terrorists.

After 9/11 everyone understood why we went to Afganistan, it was understandable. But Iraq? Bush took up the UN's responsibilities and made them ours because he truly believed Iraq was a CURRENT threat, but we disproved that and now we've created a breeding ground for terrorists.

So the guy who made the ultimate mistake, and to this day still believes he was in the right has made it so that the only way we can be safe is taking away our civil liberties. Then breaking out the credit card to pay for everything and leaving the bill for the next in line to pay, which no matter how you do the math still comes out of our pockets.... and we re-elected him.

I don't need a "strong" stubborn leader type, I need a smart one.

Predictions? Hmmm. I predict terrorists who thought they could make the US behave like Spain might rethink their efforts. (I can't remember who said this, but:) A few years ago, Osama sent 4 planes. A few weeks ago he sent a videotape.

I predict Bush will have us move to squash the insurgency in Fallujah, quickly now.

I predict gay rights activists will NOT be swayed in spite of 11 out of 11 states smacking their ridiculous agenda down to the ground.

I predict hardcore liberals will not appreciate President Bush making preemptive moves to prevent another 9/11 scenario from harming their whining little lives.

Last but not least...I predict Hillary will make a run for it in 2008; and she'll probably win.

JP: "I predict terrorists who thought they could make the US behave like Spain"

I don't think that was ever a serious possibility.

JP: "I predict Bush will have us move to squash the insurgency in Fallujah, quickly now."

Not sure on this one. Not sure if he'll do it and I'm not sure if it would be wise to do so.

JP: "I predict gay rights activists will NOT be swayed in spite of 11 out of 11 states smacking their ridiculous agenda down to the ground."

Easy prediction. Strongly-held opinions are seldom swayed.. no matter who's holding them and what the issue is.

JP: "I predict hardcore liberals will not appreciate President Bush making preemptive moves to prevent another 9/11 scenario from harming their whining little lives."

Hard to sift through your ideological bias, but I think it's fair to say that hardcore liberals AND hardcore conservatives aren't going to change their minds... about anything.

JP: "I predict Hillary will make a run for it in 2008; and she'll probably win."

Hillary may run.. and she may win.. but if the Republican candidate is someone like Giuliani or Arnold, I may vote for them. Otherwise, the Libertarian candidate will probably get my vote.

Where would I be without your fine-tuned assesments? :-)

Michael,

Compared to you, Bush is an ultra-liberal. I'm concerned about certain aspects of a second Bush term, but I'm not afraid.

The most important matter that I've always wanted to ask about is why DO you have the slowest posting button in all of blogging kingdom?

JP: "I predict Bush will have us move to squash the insurgency in Fallujah, quickly now."

Have "us" move? I like how you seem to think you are at all involved in "the move to squash the insurgency in Fallujah", like Bush and all the other people who sit at home and watch the war from their couch and think that the only cost might be that of the equipment. Maybe you have some Iraq experience, in which case I apologize; you might have some better clue about this than I suspected. But otherwise, inform yourself on the nature of this war - in which the enemies are invisible and soldiers walk the streets as human bait. You can't just shoot everything in sight, cos when you kill civilians without discrimination, you're no better than the thugs.

That's my main problem with Bush. He pretends empathy for the soldiers, he thinks 1100 lives were worth it. If he knew what it was like to be a soldier, he would be more careful with his military. And I really think (not claiming as a fact, but in my opinion of what I've seen) that the true motive for our involvement in Iraq is oil.

The deficit is another thing. We're spending more than we are producing. The difference has got to come from somewhere. I fear that it will come in the form of an economic recession in the future. Why does he cut taxes?? When you increase spending, you should *NOT* be cutting taxes. That's just irresponsible! The "republicans" I know brush it off, saying "that's just the republican way", yet unable to reconcile the gap. People, there are *consequences*. Isn't it, like, the first rule of economics that money doesn't come from thin air?

Michelle:

I said "us", because it is us. We as a country; too many people forget the "United" part of the United States. Add to that the fact that I am a former US Marine, and will always have a band of brothers there- although I'm certain that you could never understand what that means.

Don't be such a sore loser; it doesn't become you at all. While I love a debate on differences of opinion, I rather dislike uneducated snobbiness.

The problem with your theory, Michelle, is that the guys over there (roughly 80%) voted that they agree with Bush that 1100 American lives were worth it. There were more Iraqi likes, and had we not gone in, there would have been many, many more Iraqi lives.

Isn't it, like, the first rule of economics that money doesn't come from thin air?

Actually, the first rule is that money represents human effort, and therefore does indeed come from thin air.

Thank you, drive through.

Phelps: "Actually, the first rule is that money represents human effort, and therefore does indeed come from thin air."

Unfortunately, that doesn't solve the problem, does it. $400 billion deficit (or however heavy it's gotten by now) is 400 billion dollars, oh and don't forget interest, worth of human effort put it in in the future that we won't see, because it will go to paying off this old debt. When even a tax increase might be in order, much less keeping existing taxes, you want to cut them! Wasn't someone around here saying some time ago that our current standard of living is ridiculously high? Then why not allow yourself the taxes (at least the upper class) to fund the war you want. You will still be living well.

JP: As for being a sore loser: MW asked why we don't like Bush, and that's what I'm answering. Thank you, btw, for serving in the Marines. I'm sure you would make a better commander-in-chief than Mr. Bush. (Which brings me to another point: this is a very large and intelligent country, and there are many intelligent Republicans I'm sure; is Bush the best we can do?) I am a sore loser also because I am sore from staying out in the cold til 2 last night here in Copley in Boston waiting for Kerry to speak. (Isn't it nice to see that all the blue states are the stylish, more cosmopolitan and loaded states? Except Texas, which is pretty cool, except it's red.) I am not for Kerry, but a vote for Kerry is a vote against that guy Bush. Yeah, I guess he's my president some more now, so I'll listen to what he says, but I'm hoping Congress (not much luck there either huh) will show up in droves to veto anything too crazy that Bush wants to impose. Also, looking forward to having a full-time senator back.

But I digress. JP, what I'm saying is that, I fear for the people I know in Iraq. I don't want them going into Fallujah without a better plan than that with which we entered Iraq. No, I haven't fought, but I get phone calls from my brother and all I can do is worry and say is "watch out for roadside bombs". You made it sound like quashing the insurgency would be easy, like it is simply a decision to be made. And I want it to be for a good reason.

A question for you Bush-lovers: now that it has been shown that the reason the US entered Iraq is bunk, do you still think it was the right thing to do?

Go Sox

Michelle: I'll respond to you by the points directed at me.

1) I would make a horrible commander-in-chief. George Bush has the spine to stay focused under heavy amounts of nasty below the belt attacks. In the Corps, thats known as "keeping your bearing"- something GW does far better than I ever could. In addition, he strives to do what is in our best interests, regardless of "popularity" polls. He has conviction, focus, and moral clarity.

2) I'm sorry you experience the pain of fearing for people you know and love in Iraq. Fearing for loved ones' safety is unavoidable at times. While I sympathize, I would remind you that we have an all volunteer military here, and like me, each one of those men and women signed up of their own free will knowing full well the ultimate purpose of the armed forces. Your worries really have nothing to do with whether or not GW is a good president. You seem to struggle with emotion Vs facts (and everyone does at times, including me).

3) As for the reason for entering Iraq being bunk, I will asume you mean WMD. You seem to forget that the US entered Iraq for about 26(give or take a couple)distinct reasons, only one of those being the threat of WMD. The top reasons were: some 16 broken international resolutions, his interest in backing terrorism (ie...paying suicide bombers families' $25K per episode)mass genocide of 5000 of his own people, and his utter defiant disobeyance of the treaty of the gulf war.

Michelle: 3000 of our citizens died on September 11, 2001. We can no longer afford to look at terrorism the way we used to. We now have to go to it, before it comes to us. It would only have been a matter of time before Saddam would have either delivered weapons to another terrorist group to use against us(he was in the advanced stages of developing nukes), or would have provided funding for others to make a go against us.

GW is moving preemptively to save your life, whether you appreciate his efforts or not.

I would suggest that you do a little more independant research, and less memorization of the TV talking-head sound bites.

You might even find that you agree with Bush on some things, once you've looked at the facts for yourself.

One more thing, Michelle: You said "And I really think (not claiming as a fact, but in my opinion of what I've seen) that the true motive for our involvement in Iraq is oil."

Have you been to a gas pump lately? I can assure you this war is not about oil.

Re: Oil

Plus, if you like electricity, hospitals, cheap transportation, plastic, and so forth, yeah, oil is pretty important. And worth dying for.

Regardless of whether it was right to invade Iraq as we did, we have to be successful over there... lest the situation become worse than it was before the invasion.

There were plenty of mistakes in the post-war activities and, while not totally Bush's fault, he's the C-in-C... so he has to take the blame. If he's going to claim the credit for the good, he also has to take responsibility for the bad. That's true of every President... not just Bush.

The biggest obstacle to success in Iraq is the desires of the Iraqi people. They have to want their freedom... more than we do... and when that happens, they'll get security nailed down.

As it is now, we basically did their job for them... in removing Saddam.

You don't teach someone to value something and how to acquire it by valuing and acquiring it for them... you get them to value and acquire it for themselves.

Mark: Excellent point. (Yes, I'm agreeing with you). That is my only real point of concern- democracy synthesized is a new experiment. Kind of like an organ transplant. Whether or not they will reject it or make it there own is something that only time will tell.

The thing I'm most worried about is the draft that I hear Bush is going to reinstate next year.

And the fact that, due solely to Bush's stupidity, the French will continue to dislike us for another four years. Once Bush is out, they will go back to liking us like they always did before Bush stole that election.

Murdoch: The draft worries you speak of are bogus. The only politician who moved towards reinstating the draft was Kerry fanatic Rep(D)John Rangel. Yes, a democrat. As a matter of fact, he authored the bill, but no one else, Republican or Democrat, supported it. John Kerry did, however, spin that fact into the lie about Bush that you, and other uneducated voters are fretting over.

Read. Learn. Educate yourself.

From an nameless post above:

So the guy who made the ultimate mistake, and to this day still believes he was in the right has made it so that the only way we can be safe is taking away our civil liberties.

Umm... the Patriot Act (assuming that's what you mean) predated the war in Iraq by quite a bit.

------

Michelle writes:

$400 billion deficit (or however heavy it's gotten by now) is 400 billion dollars, oh and don't forget interest, worth of human effort put it in in the future that we won't see, because it will go to paying off this old debt.

Well, people still argue the logic, but conservatives' point with respect to tax cuts is that, when taxes surpass an abstract ideal, allowing people to keep more of the rewards of their labor through tax cuts encourages them to expend more "human effort." Therefore, the economy grows, and tax revenue actually goes up because more money is changing hands, having been created (see Phelps, above) by that personal activity.

JK: Who the heck wants to maximize tax revune? If government revenue is still increasing that just means you haven't cut taxes enough!

I myself am not a lefty, but my brother (who lives in the liberal bubble of SF) sincerely believes that now that Bush has been re-elected, the neocon Nazi conspiracy will take over and we will be engulfed in world war and his future children (as yet unborn) will die. I asked him if the sun would also collide with Jupiter, engulfing us all in a sea of molten rock and gas, but he didn't think it was funny.

What's wrong with a draft?

Another thing (reminded while overhearing a conversation on the subway today, as expected many here in MA are very upset over the re-election).

The US is losing respect in the world. International students are being denied admission to study in this country and are losing financial aid - I know many of you wouldn't give two squats about this and think that it is the only thing that can be done when faced with terrorism; however, this weakens the academic pool and competition here. This is no longer a welcoming country to the world's talent. Was it the goal of the US to be constructive in enlightening and educating them so they can go and use it to improve the world? Or was it to make the world fear the US? And don't give me any of that "Don't forget Poland!" crap. Luckily many outsiders only hate Bush and recognize that the rest of the US aren't cowboys. Oh well, I guess it was about time for the US to start looking unattractive. We never liked immigrants anyway.

m: We're rejecting students from terror-sponsoring nations, I'm sure, but are these really the keenest minds available? And should we sacrifice security to accept them? Should we train Iranian nuclear physicists who will return to Iran when they graduate? C'mon.

I don't think the US is having any problem continuing the brain drain from the rest of the world. Although I'd be interested to see any statistics you have to support this assertion. It is something that would concern me.

New York Times article on foreign enrollment at top US schools

Washington post article on international opinion of US

Northeastern University student newspaper article reflects experience of foreign students I know

M:What a naive point of view.

Luckily many outsiders only hate Bush and recognize that the rest of the US aren't cowboys??.

And if it were not for the likes of a few Cowboy Americans we would all be speaking Japanese and/or German wearing Hitler Youth uniforms with swastika armbands.
Those whining weenies that hate Bush (like yourself) are mostly pissed off pacifist who think talking people do death and flying doves in the air will end or prevent wars and hopefully turn these misguided brainwashed little youngsters, who wear cowards masks, slinging ak47's killing people for sake of Jihad in the name of Allah, into becoming born again Christians. What a bunch of drug induced whack’os.

Rodney King were are you!!??? Can't we all just get along???

I do not apologize for my countries actions and stand by all efforts this country and it's elected leaders take to kill every last terrorist, thug and human vermin on this planet bent on the destruction of our way of life. AMEN!!

US loosing respect in the world???? HELLO!!!! MICHELLE????? Excuse me but the US has always been ridiculed, spat on, it's officials burned in effigy, as well as it's flag disgraced and it's people resented.

Weakens the academic pool?? GIMME A BREAK!
There’s enough talent & brainpower in this country with or without foreign contributions.

Enlighten and educate foreigners so they can use this training to improve the world??? What rope are you smoking???
The only education I would like then to receive is how to point and shoot an M16 so they can fight their own damn wars and solve their own damn problems.

But the US wants to do the right thing... Seen as an aggression by some but a savior by others. The US has always had a big heart of generosity and forgiveness of which the free world could always bank on. And in some ways the end does justify the means. Sure we've been caught with our nuts in the wind and hand in the cookie jar from time to time and backed some bad people in the past. It happens....

We are the richest and most powerful nation in the world, and because of that the most hated. We will always need to guard are rear and flank.

Maybe you should re-think your posture and give thanks you live here and not in Afghanistan.

America: The Good Neighbor

Widespread but only partial news coverage was given recently to a remarkable editorial broadcast from Toronto by Gordon Sinclair, a Canadian television commentator. What follows is the full text of his trenchant remarks as
printed in the Congressional Record:

"This Canadian thinks it is time to speak up for the Americans as the most
generous and possibly the least appreciated people on all the earth.
Germany, Japan and, to a lesser extent, Britain and Italy were lifted out of
the debris of war by the Americans who poured in billions of dollars and
forgave other billions in debts. None of these countries is today paying
even the interest on its remaining debts to the United States.

When the franc was in danger of collapsing in 1956, it was the Americans who
propped it up, and their reward was to be insulted and swindled on the
streets of Paris. I was there. I saw it. When earthquakes hit distant
cities, it is the United States that hurries in to help. This spring,59
American communities were flattened by tornadoes. Nobody helped.

The Marshall Plan and the Truman Policy pumped billions of dollars into
discouraged countries. Now newspapers in those countries are writing about
the decadent, warmongering Americans. I'd like to see just one of those
countries that is gloating over the erosion of the United States dollar
build its own airplane. Does any other country in the world have a plane to
equal the Boeing Jumbo Jet, the Lockheed Tri Star, or the Douglas DC10? If
so, why don't they fly them? Why do all the International lines except
Russia fly American Planes?

Why does no other land on earth even consider putting a man or woman on the
moon? You talk about Japanese technocracy, and you get radios. You talk
about German technocracy, and you get automobiles. You talk about American
technocracy, and you find men on the moon not once, but several times
and safely home again.

You talk about scandals, and the Americans put theirs right in the store
window for everybody to look at. Even their draft dodgers are not pursued
and hounded. They are here on our streets, and most of them, unless they are
breaking Canadian laws, are getting American dollars from ma and pa at home
to spend here.

When the railways of France, Germany and India were breaking down through
age, it was the Americans who rebuilt them. When the Pennsylvania Railroad
and the New York Central went broke, nobody lent them an old caboose. Both
are still broke.

I can name you 5000 times when the Americans raced to the help of other
people in trouble. Can you name me even one time when someone else raced to
the Americans in trouble? I don't think there was outside help even during
the San Francisco earthquake.

Our neighbors have faced it alone, and I'm one Canadian who is damned tired
of hearing them get kicked around. They will come out of this thing with
their flag high. And when they do, they are entitled to thumb their nose at
the lands that are gloating over their present troubles. I hope Canada is
not one of those."

Stand proud, America!

This is one of the best editorials that I have ever read regarding the United States. It is nice that one man realizes it. I only wish that the rest of the world would realize it. We are always blamed for everything, and never even get a thank you for the things we do.

I would hope that each of you would send this to as many people as you can
and emphasize that they should send it to as many of their friends until
this letter is sent to every person on the web. I am just a single American
that has read this, I SURE HOPE THAT A LOT MORE READ IT SOON.

"The only education I would like then to receive is how to point and shoot an M16 so they can fight their own damn wars and solve their own damn problems."

THen why are we in Iraq??

Regime change? Give these people democracy? Do they want democracy?

(JP assures me this war is not about oil, while MW thinks it *is* worth it to wage war for oil but call it something else..)

Which is it?

Oh, and try to find one Bush-hater who wouldn't have fought against Japan/Germany. Iraq is different.

Leonard, you are so confused! (Now that I have a bit more time than this morning..)

You think that Iraq is necessary for the US to continue the great tradition you have mentioned!? You really really think that the US is what it is today because it had all the brainpower it needed right here in our fifty? And because they used their military might to fight for democracy in countries that weren't ready for it? Why not let's attack Cuba! You know where they despise Americans and where so many jihadists and terrorists come from? Saudi friggin Arabia, so why aren't we having war with them?

You think Mexicans would be dying to come here and live here illegally if their own country was nice? that the rest of the world can learn about a democracy that works without coming to the US and studying our politics, our industry, our research, our economics? No! and when you have a world full of crappy countries you have a world full of people who will do anything to close the gap between them and you. Maybe you think America's top universities are hosting international students out of charity. No! they do it because they know it improves the world they live in and also because many (not all) international students are just smarter than American students (not all). They do good work and teach many undergraduate classes, and whether or not you are too arrogant to admit it they are important to the American education and research system.

Jim Price: Re: oil/gas pumps. You think that because you're paying $2/gallon we didn't go into Iraq for oil?? You think that as soon as oil is unearthed the gas pumps hear about it? that their aren't corporate middlemen who know that $2/gallon means more profits than $1.5/gallon since Americans are not going to drive less just because gas is $2/gallon? You don't know about prices, do you? That the fact that 115 billion barrels (at least) of crude suddenly opened up two months after the start of the war to Exxon, Shell, ChevronTexaco, BP, etc. was just a fortuitous byproduct of the war on terror? Your assurance is capricious.

yeah yea

Btw, MW, for some reason your shameless and cavalier regard for oil and what we should do to get it irks me far less (I suppose it is the goal of pro-war folks to laugh at those who disagree, paint them as conspiracy theorists and whatnot, heck it's good fun ain't it) than the administration's handle on the same subject - maybe it would be nice to see them honest at this level at least. The country should know why we are at war.

But (as an aside) you know these days no one wants to be held accountable for anything, no one would be caught dead apologizing or anything like that.

Sorry, one more cherry on the education sundae has just been published (I couldn't resist): Foreign grad students in U.S. down.

"Foreign students and their dependents pump an estimated $13 billion a year into the U.S. economy. Even more importantly, education officials argue that talented graduate students, especially in engineering, science and technology, bring invaluable talent to the United States."

Hey folks I would like to make a prediction for the 2008 election. So they are.
The democratic nominee will be Hillary Clinton
The Republican nominee will be John Mccain or Gullani.
I predict Clinton will beat one of them and guess what Hillary will have my vote and she will win big. So America vote Clinton and you will have 4 or even 8 years of increased wealth , more jobs , a safe America and you will have the best times of your lives and so will I.
Vote Hillary Clinton.

Keep in mind that Hillary Clinton openly supports the draft. Americans above the age of 26 may not care, but some of us do. Although I do agree that neither canidate will be particularly excellent.

Predictions:

1. No change in social security, except maybe lowered benefits. Even Bush won't be able to get privatization through.

2. Greatly stepped up effort to stop border crossings. This will be in a deal with some kind of work cards.

3. Iraq will be huge success for Bush, and Syria, Iran, and Saudi Arabia will notice.

4. Economy will cool in late '05, but pick up nicely in '06.

5. The biggest thing to change the US in the next 5 years will be wealth transfer by Boomer parents and some Boomer's passing on unimagined wealth. It is too hard to get my brain around, but if you can figure out how this will effect our economy, you could amass significant power and wealth.