Let's use this post for all election-day comments. I'll be updating it as stuff happens. There are other, non-election posts below.
I'm so excited about the election tomorrow I can hardly sleep. I'm standing by my prediction that Bush will win big. Secondly, I sure hope Senator Daschle gets sent home. Thirdly, I hope Representative David Dreier (R-CA) gets the boot over his weak position on illegal immigration, and that it serves as an example to other legislators. Fourthly, I hope we know all the winners before I go to bed tomorrow night.
Note to self: keep an eye on The Horserace Blog.
Update 041102 10:26am
In case I didn't mention it earlier, I voted electronically last Thursday. Not on the internet, but with a touchscreen system. It was really easy and I only had to wait in line around 20 minutes. Seeing the stories about lines today being hours long reinforces my belief that few lukewarm Kerry supporters are going to tough it out.
Update 041102 10:28am
John Callender from lies.com proposed a bet: if Bush/Cheney wins he'll pose with a BC04 sign and if Kerry/Edwards wins I'll post with a KE04 sign. It's too bad neither of us is an incredibly sexy sweet young thing, but if I win I intend to rig up some code to automatically attach his incriminating photo to every comment he makes here in the future.
Update 041102 12:07pm
Someone in Milwaukee doesn't want Republicans to vote. Meanwhile, Bush takes an early lead in New Hampshire.
Update 041102 12:51pm
A Republican friend in Irvine says that he registered to vote through (he thinks) an ACT-affiliated group, but when he just went to vote his name wasn't in the book so he had to cast a provisonal ballot. He said a significant number of people (~10%) at his polling place who thought they were registered ended up having to vote provisionally.
Update 041102 1:03pm
Everyone is posting exit poll numbers that look good for Kerry. La di da. Maybe because Republicans are being removed from voter records?
Update 041102 1:08pm
Blackfive has also been disenfranchised -- in Chicago of all places!
Update 041102 1:53pm
NZ Bear posts a list of resources for tracking election results, including a nice clean page by MegaPundit with state-by-state results.
Update 041102 3:55pm
A lot of people are leaving work early to vote. Mostly conservatives.
Update 041102 4:20pm
Megan McArdle notes that the TradeSports Bush line is way down... 29.0 as of this posting. Looks like a good time to buy, but I wonder how long it will take me to set up an account?
Update 041102 5:45pm
Rick Brady has a great election eve prayer. (HT: Hugh Hewitt.)
Update 041102 5:55pm
I'm off to the Bear Flag League LAX party. Here are the websites I've currently got open:
http://www.megapundit.com/results2004.php
https://www.tradesports.com/
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/index.html
http://www.drudgereport.com/
http://enight.dos.state.fl.us/20041102_SUM_PRE.html
http://election.sos.state.oh.us/results/SingleRaceSummary.aspx?race=PP
http://www.electionreturns.state.pa.us/default.aspx?control=StatewideReturns&ElecID=1&OfficeID=1
Update 041102 7:22pm
I'm at Kevin's now and trying to catch up with the numbers. Minor technical difficulties with the wireless, and now I'm wired again. I'll take pictures and such later.
Update 041102 8:04pm
Some BFLers.
Update 041102 8:40pm
More BFLers. There's around 16 people here at the moment.
Update 041102 10:07pm
Bush wins! Now if only he can creep above 300 EVs....
Update 041102 10:42pm
Dan Rather reports that Bush is "frighteningly close to winning".
Update 041102 10:47pm
Jessica claims her sources in Ohio are saying there's going to be a recount there. But the differential is 100k votes.... She also informs me that she's expecting a call from Bill O'Reilly soon.
Update 041102 10:51pm
WaPo has a great page that shows the times at which various networks called various states for the candidates. Someone should do an analysis and estimate their biases based on how eager they were to make the calls.
Update 041103 12:50am
I'm going to bed. It looks like a pretty clear Bush victory, but no word on whether or not Bush will claim it tonight. The media refuses to call New Mexico, Iowa, or Nevada, despite the fact that these states have nearly completely reported and Bush has a wide lead in each. I think Bush should claim it, even if just to frame the upcoming litigation, but will he? Anyway, maybe we'll know more in the morning. If the Dems insist on litigating Ohio then the Reps should consider fighting in Wisconsin, where the results are much tighter.
Good night. God bless America.
I seriously doubt that Bush will win big and I'm not convinced that he will win at all.
As this will be my 8th presidential election to vote in, I am certain that life will go on regardless of who wins.
I do greatly prefer my state's use of the optical scanning for balloting. I find it easy to use a marker to complete a solid line and there is a paper trail for recounts.
My prediction remains the same as it's always been: Bush will win, but by a very small margin.
Like Joel Thomas, I'm totally convinced that life will go on regardless of who wins...
.. but I'm not convinced at all that either candidate has this election "in the bag", so to speak.
Hey, Michael, want to have a bet to keep it interesting? If Bush wins, I'll photograph and post on my web site a picture of me holding a "Bush/Cheney '04" capaign sign. If Kerry wins, you do the same on your site, except with a "Kerry/Edwards" sign. What do you say?
Just to keep it interesting, of course. Since otherwise we'd have no particular reason to be paying attention to the returns. And it should be good for some consolation traffic for the loser, at least.
John
JC: Absolutely! Good idea. Hopefully we won't have to wait till next year to find out who wins, either.... It shouldn't be any trouble to find a KE04 sign in my neighborhood.
Seriously? Tradesports is crashing with volume. Hope you're not trying to trade, let alone open an account. So much for a liquid market.
[anon]: I opened an account and traded successfully. Not a lot of money, but I think it's a good investment.
Equity futures market rallying, market knows Bush will win.
Oh and Drudge called, he told me to tell you he said 'hi.' We're hanging out at the bar now.
I wish!
DD: Is he using the siren to pick up chicks again? I gotta get me one of those.
Right now, the only states left in play are New Mexico, Iowa, and Ohio... with the EV count at Bush-254, Kerry-252.
This means that the victor in Ohio will win.
I think now the debate becomes about how much you meant by "win big".
http://www.lies.com/wp/2004/11/03/four-more-years/
DD: Is he using the siren to pick up chicks again? I gotta get me one of those.
JC: Nice.