And now for a post-debate update of my earlier post on gambling for governors. Since last Wednesday's candidate debate, Arnold has surged ahead in the polls.

The poll said 63 percent of probable voters said they would cast ballots to recall Davis, while only 35 percent would vote against recall.

In regards to the second part of the ballot, the poll said Schwarzenegger had the support of 40 percent of those polled. Lt. Gov Cruz Bustamante was at 25 percent; Sen. Tom McClintock, R-Thousand Oaks, had 18 percent; Green Party candidate Peter Camejo 5 percent; and Arianna Huffington, 2 percent.

It looks like my earlier predictions were, in fact, too conservative. I predicted that the recall would succeed with more than 60% approval, but now I wouldn't be surprised if it goes above 70% once election day actually arrives. I expected Arnold to win with a small plurality, but with those kinds of numbers he might actually pull off a majority, whether McClintock pulls out or not. Why? Because many McClintock-ites will change their minds and vote for Arnold at the last minute, and many "non-likely-voters" -- who are discounted by pollsters -- will possibly turn out to vote for the action star.

So what do TradeSports bettors think on September 29th?

Compare that with the numbers from September 24th:

You can see that Arnold has gained more than 18 points, Bustamante has lost 18 points, and the "recall fails" contract has dropped by nearly half, to just 15%. The poll numbers certainly influence the prices placed on these contracts, but these valuations go to show that the Davis camp in wrong in thinking that:

"The Gallup poll is a joke," said Peter Ragone, spokesman for the Californians Against the Costly Recall. "There isn't a public poll, private poll, or poll amid friends and families in this state that is consistent with those numbers. It has no impact on us."
It's also interesting to read that a great many Californians are rushing to buy new cars before the vehicle license fees go up 300% on October 1st. That timing has got to be hurting Davis.

[And note: I'm not affiliated with TradeSports in any way, nor do I gamble.]



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