It's fashionable to look at demographics and try to draw conclusions, but it generally doesn't work very well. Donald Sensing points to one example, wherein a writer named Spengler claims:

Which brings us to the threat of radical Islam. "You are decadent and hedonistic. We on the other hand are willing to die for what we believe, and we are a billion strong. You cannot kill all of us, so you will have to accede to what we demand." That, in a nutshell, constitutes the Islamist challenge to the West.

Neither the demographic shift toward Muslim immigrants nor meretricious self-interest explains Western Europe's appeasement of Islam, but rather the terrifying logic of the numbers. That is why President Bush has thrown his prestige behind the rickety prospect of an Israeli-Palestinian peace. And that is why Islamism has only lost a battle in Iraq, but well might win the war.

Donald has written about demographics and Israel before, and I've commented.

Demographics always indicate that the poor and oppressed are eventually going to take over the world. Why? Because poor people have more kids than rich people. That's just the way it is. Somehow, the the rich and powerful manage to stay in control anyway.... I'm not dismissing demographics, but I do think such arguments need to be taken with a grain of salt. The situation is never as clear as it looks from raw population numbers.

As the poor and weak gain power and wealth, their growth rate drops and their priorities change. Rich people want freedom, stability, and trade -- not violent revolution. Radical Arab Muslims aren't going to take over the world, because if they ever have that kind of power they won't be Radical Arab Muslims anymore.



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