Accoding to WaPo, Arnold is trailing Bustamante in the recent California Field Poll. Donald Sensing thinks that Arnold is facing an uphill battle. However, there are still two conservative republicans in the running that are polling in the single digits.
If Simon and McClintock pull out and add their 17% to Arnold's, the race will look much different. I suspect that McClintock at least will withdraw in a few weeks; Simon doesn't strike me as realistic or humble enough to resign that easily.
It's important to note that people may say they prefer these conservatives over Arnold in a poll, but most of them know that their preferred candidates can't actually win the election. They might vote differently once the ballot is actually sitting in front of them.
Don't buy the spin!