THE FIRST BLACK PRESIDENT: The first black president will be a Republican. Why? Because racial gerrymandering by Democrats produces Congressional districts that elect black candidates who are so extreme that they can never win higher office. Democrats benefit by keeping blacks and other minorities as far to the extreme left as possible.
In contrast, both Colin Powell and Condoleezza Rice are brilliant (especially Rice) and moderate black public servants with plenty of name recognition. Powell has said that he doesn't want to be president, and that's a good thing in my mind. History shows us that generals typically make poor presidents. I admire our military's generals a great deal, but the skill set and mental condition of a general are very different than that required for a president.
Rice has never held elected office. The most likely path that would lead her to the presidency would be to run for VP on Bush's ticket in 2004, and then run for president herself in 2008. It's possible, and of all the blacks in the country she has the highest chance of making it happen; I don't know how likely it is that she'll try, or that she would win the Republican primary, but she has more of a chance than Al Sharpton or Jesse Jackson ever had of sitting in the Oval Office.