PERSUASION: Here's a quote from CNN:

Rumsfeld said the latest waves of air attacks were launched after senior Iraqi officers failed to turn against Saddam following initial U.S. airstrikes Thursday, including one aimed at Saddam himself, and a U.S. and British invasion of southern Iraq.

"What we've done so far has not been sufficiently persuasive," Rumsfeld said.

This surprises me. Of what do they remain unpersuaded? Maybe I'm too rational (or maybe I have more information than the Iraqi generals do?), but it's almost incomprehensible to me that anyone in a leadership position in Iraq still has doubts that they're going to lose, and lose badly. So, assuming they know this, why are they refusing to surrender?

  • They're biding their time, hoping to use the fighting as cover to escape (with money or other assets).
  • They think Saddam is still alive and still has a gun to their heads (literally or figuratively, through blackmail) and are more afraid of him than of us.
  • There is some sort of surprise plan that they think will change the tide of the battle (it seems unlikely that they think this, and it's even more unlikely that it's true).
  • They expect the UN or some other group to try and step in and save them (also implausable).
  • They're all meglomaniacal madmen, just like Saddam. This seems unlikely to me as well, since I don't think Saddam would want to surround himself with henchmen who didn't kowtow to his meglomania.

    I'll send this post to SDB and maybe he can enlighten us.

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